{"id":3271,"date":"2025-11-30T14:47:01","date_gmt":"2025-11-30T07:47:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ckvn.net\/chung-khoan\/?p=3271"},"modified":"2025-11-30T14:47:03","modified_gmt":"2025-11-30T07:47:03","slug":"tien-gui-cua-dan-cu-tiep-tuc-lap-dinh-moi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ckvn.net\/chung-khoan\/tin-tuc\/viet-nam\/tien-gui-cua-dan-cu-tiep-tuc-lap-dinh-moi\/","title":{"rendered":"Ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi c\u1ee7a d\u00e2n c\u01b0 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c l\u1eadp \u0111\u1ec9nh m\u1edbi"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

S\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u v\u1eeba \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc (NHNN) \u0111\u01b0a ra, \u0111\u1ebfn cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 9, ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi c\u1ea3 kh\u00e1ch h\u00e0ng c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n v\u00e0 t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c kinh t\u1ebf c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng (TCTD) \u0111\u1ea1t g\u1ea7n 16,18 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng, t\u0103ng g\u1ea7n 3% so v\u1edbi s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 g\u1ea7n nh\u1ea5t cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 7 (15,73 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Trong \u0111\u00f3, ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi c\u1ee7a d\u00e2n c\u01b0 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c l\u1eadp \u0111\u1ec9nh m\u1edbi v\u1edbi h\u01a1n 7,83 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng, t\u0103ng 10,86% so v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m. Ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi c\u1ee7a doanh nghi\u1ec7p \u0111\u1ea1t h\u01a1n 8,35 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng, t\u0103ng 8,91% so v\u1edbi cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2024. Ngo\u00e0i ra, t\u1ed5ng ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ti\u1ec7n thanh to\u00e1n t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 9 \u0111\u1ea1t g\u1ea7n 20 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng, t\u0103ng 11,53% so v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Theo NHNN, trong th\u00e1ng 9, l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi b\u1eb1ng VND b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n c\u1ee7a NHTM trong n\u01b0\u1edbc \u1edf m\u1ee9c 0,1- 0,2%\/n\u0103m \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi kh\u00f4ng k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n v\u00e0 c\u00f3 k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n d\u01b0\u1edbi 1 th\u00e1ng; 3,4- 4,1%\/n\u0103m \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi c\u00f3 k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n t\u1eeb 1 th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ebfn d\u01b0\u1edbi 6 th\u00e1ng. M\u1ee9c 4,6 – 5,5%\/n\u0103m \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi c\u00f3 k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n t\u1eeb 6 th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ebfn 12 th\u00e1ng; 4,9 – 6,1%\/n\u0103m \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi c\u00f3 k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n t\u1eeb tr\u00ean 12 th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ebfn 24 th\u00e1ng v\u00e0 6,7 – 7,5%\/n\u0103m \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n tr\u00ean 24 th\u00e1ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u th\u00e1ng 11 \u0111\u1ebfn nay, h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i t\u01b0 nh\u00e2n \u0111\u00e3 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh bi\u1ec3u l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t (ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn t\u1eeb 0,1 – 0,5 \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m) trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh \u00e1p l\u1ef1c thanh kho\u1ea3n cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh, khi t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng huy \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1eabn th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng to\u00e0n h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ebfn cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 9\/2025 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea1t 15% so v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m v\u00e0 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng l\u00ean m\u1ee9c 15,1% t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 10, g\u1ea7n ch\u1ea1m m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau \u0111\u1eb7t ra cho c\u1ea3 n\u0103m. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng nhanh nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2018. Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng huy \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ed1n ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u1ea1t kho\u1ea3ng 9,6% – 10,2% t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 11\/2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

PGS.TS Nguy\u1ec5n H\u1eefu Hu\u00e2n – Gi\u1ea3ng vi\u00ean \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Kinh t\u1ebf TP.HCM cho r\u1eb1ng, nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n khi\u1ebfn c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ed3ng lo\u1ea1t t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t huy \u0111\u1ed9ng ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu xu\u1ea5t ph\u00e1t t\u1eeb y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 m\u00f9a v\u1ee5, khi nhu c\u1ea7u v\u1ed1n v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ng cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m lu\u00f4n \u1edf m\u1ee9c cao. Trong khi c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng c\u0169ng mu\u1ed1n th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ec3 ho\u00e0n th\u00e0nh ch\u1ec9 ti\u00eau c\u1ea3 n\u0103m. B\u1edfi giai \u0111o\u1ea1n cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m lu\u00f4n l\u00e0 th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m nhu c\u1ea7u v\u1ed1n t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh, k\u00e9o theo t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng th\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1eadt l\u00ean \u0111\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c th\u00e1ng kh\u00e1c trong n\u0103m.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Th\u00eam v\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3, \u00e1p l\u1ef1c t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 v\u1eabn hi\u1ec7n h\u1eefu trong qu\u00fd IV\/2025, th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n qua vi\u1ec7c t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 trung t\u00e2m v\u00e0 t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 li\u00ean ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c nh\u00edch t\u0103ng (ch\u1ed1t 26.380 VND\/USD ng\u00e0y 24\/11). Tuy nhi\u00ean, tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 trong n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 t\u00edch c\u1ef1c t\u1eeb ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf. C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang M\u1ef9 (Fed) \u0111\u00e3 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u chu k\u1ef3 n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng b\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c h\u1ea1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t qu\u1ef9 li\u00ean bang t\u1eeb 4.25% xu\u1ed1ng 4,00% – 4,25% l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean trong n\u0103m 2025. Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng Fed s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c gi\u1ea3m 0,25 \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m trong th\u00e1ng 12\/2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gi\u1edbi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch cho r\u1eb1ng, n\u1ebfu Fed n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng ti\u1ebfp gi\u00fap gi\u1ea3m \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u00ean t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 VND\/USD, l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m s\u1ee9c h\u1ea5p d\u1eabn vi\u1ec7c n\u1eafm gi\u1eef ngo\u1ea1i t\u1ec7, t\u1ea1o \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n cho d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf t\u00ecm \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edbi n\u1ed5i c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t h\u1ea5p d\u1eabn h\u01a1n nh\u01b0 Vi\u1ec7t Nam. Quan tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n, \u00e1p l\u1ef1c t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 gi\u1ea3m b\u1edbt gi\u00fap gi\u1ea3i ph\u00f3ng NHNN kh\u1ecfi nhu c\u1ea7u ph\u1ea3i t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ec3 \u1ee9ng ph\u00f3 v\u1edbi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ngo\u1ea1i t\u1ec7.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y cho ph\u00e9p c\u01a1 quan qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd t\u1eadp trung ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 linh ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng thanh kho\u1ea3n n\u1ed9i t\u1ea1i v\u1eabn b\u1ea3o to\u00e0n ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng th\u00f4ng qua l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cho vay th\u1ea5p. Xu h\u01b0\u1edbng n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng c\u1ee7a Fed n\u1ebfu ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c s\u1ebd l\u00e0 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ea1o cho VND. Theo d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o, t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 VND\/USD s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m d\u1ea7n, d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea1t 26.300 VND\/USD v\u00e0o qu\u00fd I\/2026 v\u00e0 26.200 VND\/USD v\u00e0o qu\u00fd II\/2026.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi d\u00e2n c\u01b0 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c l\u1eadp \u0111\u1ec9nh m\u1edbi, v\u01b0\u1ee3t 7,83 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng \u2013 t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh g\u1ea7n 11% t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m. Trong khi t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng t\u0103ng t\u1ed1c nhanh nh\u1ea5t t\u1eeb 2018, nhi\u1ec1u ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng bu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea3i n\u00e2ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t huy \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng nhu c\u1ea7u v\u1ed1n cao cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m. \u00c1p l\u1ef1c t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 gi\u1ea3m nh\u1edd Fed b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u chu k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, t\u1ea1o d\u01b0 \u0111\u1ecba cho NHNN ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3272,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[171],"tags":[969,968,963,962,804,967,965,964,961,966,960],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ckvn.net\/chung-khoan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3271"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ckvn.net\/chung-khoan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ckvn.net\/chung-khoan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ckvn.net\/chung-khoan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ckvn.net\/chung-khoan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3271"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/ckvn.net\/chung-khoan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3271\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3274,"href":"https:\/\/ckvn.net\/chung-khoan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3271\/revisions\/3274"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ckvn.net\/chung-khoan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3272"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ckvn.net\/chung-khoan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3271"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ckvn.net\/chung-khoan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3271"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ckvn.net\/chung-khoan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3271"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}